Mega Retail Projects to Drive Record Space Supply

A new trend of large experiential retail developments is set to transform the retail space in India with the average retail supply expected to increase by one-third over the next five years as compared to the last decade. Delhi-NCR will be at the forefront with massive retail projects.

The five years, Q2 2024 – end 2028, will see a surge in organized retail space completions. According to a latest JLL India report, the top seven cities (Mumbai, Delhi NCR, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Pune, Kolkata, Chennai)  will see  45 million sq. ft. of supply through 88 new retail developments, outpacing the supply of the past decade (2014-2023), pegged at 38 million sq. ft.

In response to the evolving preferences of modern shoppers seeking unique experiences, developers are increasingly prioritizing the development of larger retail centres. The data also suggests that upcoming retail developments will be larger in size compared to those that became operational in the last decade. Over the past ten years, the average size of new retail supply was approximately 391,099 sq. ft. However, this is expected to increase by 30% to reach 507,341 sq. ft with the addition of new supply during Q2 2024-2028. This signifies a notable trend in the retail market moving towards larger-sized experience-led developments.

According to Dr Samantak Das, Chief Economist &  Head Research & REIS , India JLL, out of the 88 upcoming retail developments in the next five years, there will be 12 large-sized projects encompassing area of at least 1 million square feet each. These projects will contribute a substantial portion, amounting to 37 percent of the total supply expected until 2028. This marks a notable increase in comparison to the previous decade, where retail centres of 1 million square feet and above accounted for just 27 percent of completed supply. Furthermore, Delhi NCR will see two retail centres of over 2.5 million sq. ft each in the next 5 years.

Increasing global travel has heightened shoppers’ awareness, leading to a demand for unique and immersive retail experiences. Larger developments incorporating entertainment, leisure activities, and dining options are creating comprehensive destinations that cater to the modern consumer.

Majority (78 percent) of the upcoming retail supply of 45 million sq. ft is lease-based that allows developers to have greater control over the quality of the tenant mix and day-to-day management of the property, thus enabling them to command higher rentals. As a result, they can curate a diverse mix of tenants that align with their vision for the development.

“The existing retail stock, which stands at 89 million sq. ft, is expected to grow by 50% and reach 134 million sq. ft by end-2028. Delhi NCR is expected to garner the highest share (43 percent) in the supply in the next five years followed by Hyderabad with a share of 21 percent and Chennai having a share of 13 percent. Retail assets remain an attractive investment avenue for large foreign institutional investors, who are increasingly opting for greenfield and brownfield development platforms. Notably, 16 percent (7.2 million sq. ft) of the new supply is owned by institutional players, according to Rahul Arora, Head of Office Leasing Advisory and Retail Services, India, JLL

Q1 2024 (Jan-March) Retail Stock Supply Overview in India

Source: REIS, JLL Research and Retail

Note: A few non-performing and poorly managed retail developments have been removed from the stock because they have either been shut down or are undergoing a revamp or are being converted to other asset class.